Maliki etching out the path towards authoritarianism

Democracy in Iraq is under threat again. Prime Minister Nour Maliki’s obvious attempts to undermine the already fragile political process shows no sign of abating as Faraj al-Haidari, the head of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), and Kareem al-Tamimi were jailed last week on charges of bribery.

The allegations, which were initially made last year and rejected by the courts, centre around the payment of around $100 made to people working overtime at the IHEC in 2010; money, it is accused, taken wrongfully out of the electoral commissions’ coffers. In a country ripe with corruption, where billions of dollars from oil deals get passed surreptitiously from dubious politicians to dodgy businessmen, these are such minor charges that they cry a political motive.

Haidari, speaking from his cell in Baghdad, said that the initial court ruling was only overturned once Hanan al-Fatlawi approached the court last year. Al-Fatlawi is a member of Maliki’s political bloc. It is no wonder that such apparent meddling in this case has taken place. The IHEC is centrally important to the democratic process. It is the largest independent electoral commission in Iraq, and was integral in overseeing the 2010 elections in a climate of violence and intimidation; IHEC workers were constantly threatened in their work.

Hairdari and Maliki clashed then, over the issue of vote counting. Maliki wanted thousands of votes for Iraqiya discredited, Haidari stood his ground. But now he has been made a scapegoat in the continuing attempts by Maliki to shore up his power. Having failed in taking the IHEC under Parliament’s power (Maliki faced strong Parliamentary opposition from the other blocs in his attempt), he is looking to fell Haidari on minor corruption charges.

The country already faces a political power struggle, with Vice President Tarek al-Hashemi hounded by Maliki on murder charges, his bodyguards tortured to death. Hashemi, who initially hid in Kurdistan before fleeing the country, has insisted that he is being pursued by the security forces and not the judges. At a NCF working group lunch Hemen Hawrami, President Barzani’s right hand man, accused Maliki of politicising the case. Maliki will face a mounting opposition from the other political parties over these issues. Hashemi has said that he will discuss with the Kurdish and Shia parties to form an alliance to topple Maliki before the 2014 elections.

A recent NCF blog highlighted the need for Western media to report Iraqi sectarianism with care. What should also be reported are Maliki’s clear attempts to delegitimize the fragile political process in Iraq as he drags the country towards an authoritarian and sectarian state.

Spotlight on Baghdad: Iraq and the Arab League Summit

The 23^rd Annually Arab League Summit was held in Baghdad from the 27-29^th March.  It was the first time Iraq has hosted an Arab League summit since 1990, before the start of the Gulf War.  Furthermore it was the first high profile event staged by the country since the withdrawal of US armed force in December 2011.  The event gave Prime Minister Nouri Maliki a chance to show that his Iraq can play a part on the world stage without an American crutch.

The cost of summit was reported to be over $500 million, with the vast sum that could have been spent on renovating Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone, refurbishing hotels, planting flowers and resurfacing roads, used by the delegations.  Most noticeable for ordinary Iraqi’s was the ramped up security, who imposed tight curfews, road blocks and security check points, much to the frustration of local traders who’s business were disrupted.  Yet despite the precautions there was a suicide attack in Baghdad on 27^th March that left one person dead and four injured. Two days later three rockets were fired towards the Green Zone - luckily no one was hurt.

Many Iraqi’s were less than impressed by the summit; they see Maliki’s investment as a purely superficial one.  The people of the Baghdad would be far happier if their government could repair the power grid and other basic amenities rather than host delegations from the neighbour states. The Iraqi capital still has bad roads, long power-cuts and a shaky water and sewage system.

Yet despite the misgivings of his electorate, Maliki saw the chance to host the summit as an opportunity to reintegrate his country in the fold with the rest of Arab league.  He has moved away from Iran and closer to rival Arab heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Speaking in a Saudi newspaper, he called for greater Arab unity and countered misgivings about Iraq’s close ties to Iran.  Iraq also agreed to pay $400 million to Egyptian workers, money owed to them from before the first Gulf War.  In contrast Iran was not invited to send a delegation to the summit.

The main focus of the summit was of course the violence in Syria.   The Arab world, despite broadly supporting Kofi Annan’s six point peace plan, remains divided on the issue.  Saudi Arabia and Qatar are calling for prompt, tough action against Bashar al Assad, and before the summit were openly in favour of arming the Free Syrian Army. 

In contrast Iraq and Lebanon, anxious about the future stability of Syria if Assad was to fail, favour a negotiated solution. Maliki used the Baghdad summit to urge caution; he warned of the dangers of a "proxy war" if foreign powers were to arm the different factions within Syria.  He made it clear Iraq was not in favour of outside intervention in Syria

As the delegates departed on the 29^th of March, they all acknowledged that it would it take time to resolve the situation in Syria.  Yet despite Assad accepting Annan’s plan his oppression continues - the UN estimates more than 9,000 people have been killed.

Notes from a meeting with the Kurdistan Democratic Party 15/3/12

Representative from the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Hemen Hawrami, led discussions in London about issues facing his party and the Kurdistan Regional Government.  Hawrami explained that as the largest party in the Kurdistan political process, the KDP has played a vital role in the success achieved by the KRG; Since 2005 Iraqi Kurdistan has become a well developed, constitutional part of Iraq.  The region is regarded as safe and secure and there has been an increase in foreign investment, income per capita and a fall in unemployment.

The KRG believe the main challenge facing Iraqi Kurdistan is from interference from Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who they believe wants central control of all of Iraq from Baghdad.  The KRG advocate a democratic, pluralistic Iraq, but claim that the central government are not moving the country in that direction.  Instead, the Kurds see the Iraqi government becoming centralised and more authoritarian under Maliki.  Increasingly the Kurds are feeling less and less that they are being treated as federal partners in the government of Iraq.

There are further issues surrounding the repatriation of the Kirkuk province.  The KDP want to return the Kurds and Turqmen who were removed from Kirkuk by the Ba’ath Party.  The KDP also want to remove the Arabs that were sent in to ‘Arabise’ the region, a process Hawrami called “normalisation”.  However a major stumbling block is the cost the ‘normalisation’; Hawrami claims that it is going to cost an estimated $1.5 billion, but the Iraqi government is only willing to contribute $150 million.  Ultimately the KDP hope that the original people of Kirkuk should then be the ones who decide their political future, they believe that a referendum in Kirkuk is vital for people so that they can decide if they want to be Kurd, autonomous, or Iraqi.

There are further issues between the KRG and Baghdad over oil production.  The KRG maintains that the oil of Iraq belongs to all Iraqis, but they hope that any new oil fields should be run by the territories they are found in, in coordination with the federal government. Despite fears that Baghdad will try to maintain control over any new oil fields the KRG has passed its own law to make Iraqi Kurdistan capable of producing all its own oil - estimated to be 275,000 barrels of oil a year.  Under the oil revenue sharing agreement, 83% of the oil revenue in Kurdistan currently goes to the Iraqi government, but the KRG would like to have control over any new oilfields in the Kurdish zone. 

A final key point of friction between Iraqi Kurdistan and Baghdad is related to the make up the security forces in Iraq.  The KRG stress that they are eligible to have their own security forces as part of Iraq’s defence system.    Currently the armed Kurdish fighters, the Peshmerga, have been responsible for security of the Kurdish areas of Northern Iraq since the American led invasion of Iraq in 2003.  Despite this the Iraqi government refuses to recognise them as part of the Iraqi defence system.  As a result Baghdad does not contribute substantially to the cost of upkeep this force, even though they have been securing large stretches of the Northern Iraqi border for a number of years.

The KDP also has concerns over the ethnic makeup of the Iraqi military - Currently out of 14 divisions in the national army, there is only one Sunni division and one Kurdish division.  Hawarmi, and the KDP, worry about the lack of balance and fear that the Iraqi military may not treating Iraqi Kurdistan as friendly.  With that in mind the KRG cannot support any plans for funding the Iraqi military until there is a grantee that the military will not be used for internal conflict.   

Hawarmi also spoke at length about the current situation in Syria.  With more than 2 million Kurds in Syria, any decisions affecting Syria’s Kurdish population affects Iraqi Kurdistan.  Hawarmi stressed that the KRG believed in the importance of system change rather than regime change.     The KRG believe Syria needs a pluralistic, secular and democratic system.  The KRG support the Syrian Kurds’ dream of autonomy, but urges them to be realistic, stating that autonomy can only realistically be achieved within the confines of the territorial integrity of Syria.

Finally Hawarmi discussed the improving relations with Turkey; Turkish companies continue to invest in Kurdistan and there are now more than 1000 Turkish companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, eclipsing the sizable investment of Iranian and British firms.  The KDP hoped the Turkish based armed separatist group, the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK, could “silence their arms” and engage in a peaceful political campaign.  In the future it is hoped that President of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, will hold national conference for all Kurds promote democratic and civil movement and denounce violence.

  

Meeting KRG in London

Head of Foreign Relations tells British seminar of concerns about political crisis in Iraq

Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir the Head of the Department Foreign Relations had a packed schedule on his visit to the UK. He met FCO Minister Alistair Burt, participated in the FCO’s Future of the Middle East conference and spoke at a Next Century Foundation think tank seminar. He said that the Kurdistan Region is very worried about Prime Minister Al-Maliki’s maneouvres against other Iraqi politicians. 

A conference about Iraq and Kurdistan was organized by the NCF on Tuesday 17. The meeting was held at the new Kurdish Region Government representative office in London, with the presence of William, the Head of the KRG Department of Foreign Relations Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir, and the KRG High Representative to the UK Bayan Sami Adbul Rahman. Since the withdrawal of the US troops in December, worries have increased about the situation in the country, and especially in the Kurdistan region, whose minority was particularly targeted under the Saddam’s regime.
At the moment the situation in Iraq is especially problematic, with an escalation risk to a sectarian bloody conflict among the three main Sunnis, Shiite and Kurdish groups. The KRG Minister referred in particular to the “Hashemi case”: Iraq’s Vice President has been accused of running death squads assassinating Shiite government members and asked to face a trial, but at the moment the Sunni leader is hosted in the Kurdish region, under the protection of Barzani’s government. The case is a high-sensitive issue today, and Kurds are particularly concern for its consequences. During the meeting, KRG Minister Bakir stated that the first aim of his government is to reconcile the parts, avoiding a dangerous escalation of the issue, and that Kurds are willing to play a role as negotiators to facilitate the settlement of the dispute. The Kurdish authorities are especially worried about the possible use of this case as a pretext to discuss the post Saddam political structure of Iraq as a federalist state and its division of power.
Federalism is seen as the best solution for Iraq, and the respect of the Federalist Constitution is considered the key factor for the future of the country, and the only way for the Kurdish people to be part of an Iraqi state. The respect of the Constitution is important not only for the division of political power in the country, but also in sharing oil revenues and facing the dispute territories issues. In this sense, using at best its special autonomous status, the Kurdistan Region is becoming a quiet stable and secure area in an increasing hard nation. As illustrated during the meeting, security condition in Kurdistan are far better than in the rest of Iraq, and the reconstruction phase is greatly benefitting from this. Many states and foreign companies are attracted in Kurdistan, signing contracts for the exploitation of its oil resources and the construction of infrastructures destroyed during the war. Kurdish authorities are eager to build good relations with foreign countries: among them, special places are reserved to Turkey, Iran, the US, France, the UK, and some Arab states. The necessity to create a solid diversified economy goes along with foreign investments and the development of florid partnerships with these countries. External relations present also some challenges to the Kurdish government, with regards to two neighbouring countries as Iran and Syria. With its numerous Kurdish community, the developments of the Syrian struggle are particularly concerning the Arbil government, which is trying to help the divided Syrian Kurdish reality.
Many obstacles but also some relevant good steps are the balance sheet of the Kurdish experience in the post Saddam Iraq so far. As the KRG representatives in London highlighted, Kurdistan could become a positive element for both Iraq and the entire region, as an example of democracy, stability and development. 2012 will be a crucial year for its aspirations, and the first priority will be to take hard decisions to stabilize the fragile current Iraqi coalition, preventing a possible bloody collapse into a civil war.

Reckoning with past crimes

Last week, London was the location of a three-day conference about Iraq, entitled “Looking Toward International Recognition of the Dictatorial Former Regime’s Crime and Violations”. The conference was intended to draw attention to the crimes committed by Saddam’s regime during its long reign, atrocities that caused several hundred-thousand deaths, and whose consequences are still significant in today’s Iraqi struggles. With the participation of the Iraqi Minister of Human Rights, the Minister of Martyrs and Anfals’ Affairs and Iraq’s Ambassador in the UK, the principal aim of the conference was to “internationalize” these crimes by getting international support both by states and organizations in recognizing the nature and the size of what happened. Still today, numbers are disputed, with 1 to 3 million people killed. Almost every ethnical and religious minority and opposition group was oppressed: Kurdish minority was particularly targeted, with the Anfal campaign conducted between 1986 and 1989, and its peak in the Halabja massacre in March 1988. International recognition of Saddam’s crimes would help in reviewing Iraqi past, according to the current Iraq’s government, shedding light on what happened. The goal is not only to compensate the victims, but also to clarify responsibilities and to prosecute the authors of the crimes.
The conference was also the opportunity to illustrate the results of mass graves protection programmes in Iraq, a work started in 2005 with specific laws approved to exhume the hundreds of sites supposed to contain the rests of Saddam’s victims. Also with mass graves, numbers are still uncompleted: at the moment, excavations have started in more the 70 sites, but more than 160 cases are presumed all over the country. Besides identifying and giving a decent burial to the victims, the campaign is aimed to prove the reality of former regime’s actions, against any attempt to reduce the dimensions or even the existence of what happened. Despite many technical difficulties – lack of proper DNA laboratories for the identifications, sites still contaminated by chemical products, presence of mines in the graves – and the vast amount of money required to complete this programme, mass graves recognition is considered a national aim by the current Iraqi authorities, and operations are running fast.
Speaking at the audience, Iraqi Minister of Human Rights stressed the importance of human rights in politics, and the role Iraq is playing as a “pilot country” in the region by adopting democratic standards; but this was the only reference during the conference to the current troubling situation of the Gulf country. Quiet interesting, the mass graves programmes will investigate only the former regime responsibility, ignoring crimes committed after 2003, atrocities that took place under the US occupation and the new Baghdad government. This choice, to mark a clear line between the past and the present conditions and responsibilities, is a great concern for the current Iraqi parties in power, but can lead the programme to be accused of biased political purposes, rather than cultivating Iraqi national interests. For instance, Kurd minorities complain that the programme is neglecting their claims about supposed more mass grave sites, concentrating on other parts of Iraq. In this sense, the legitimate operation of historical clarification and justice has not to be mixed with today’s political reasons, useful to the current Iraqi political elites but really dangerous to the security and stability of an already confused and troublesome domestic situation.

U.S. Troops to Leave Iraq Weeks Ahead of Schedule

After President Obama announced at the end of last month that the U.S. troops in Iraq would be pulled out by the end of the year, the administration is now speeding up the complete withdrawal of approximately 40 000 troops by early December this year. This announcement was met by strong disagreement in the ranks of the Republicans. They fear that the pulling out of the US forces at this point would leave the country prey to Iran and give Al Qaeda a chance of resurgence.

Senator John McCain, who ran against Obama in the 2008 elections, deeply criticized the President's decision to withdraw all US troops by December this year. He expressed his concern that the administration's commitment to the complete withdrawal of US forces from Iraq may have played a crucial role in accelerating the process. However, one of the key issues the US had to face was the refusal of the Iraqi government to grant judicial immunity in case to any remaining US troops.

Nevertheless, Republicans' concern about spreading Iranian influence within Iraq may not be that implausible. Iranian military and political power in the country is now further enhanced by its growing soft power. According to Al Arabiya, cheap goods produced in Iran have flooded the Iraqi markets, while Iranian companies have invested billions of dollars in construction projects throughout the country, including the holy cities of Najaf and Kerbala.

In comparison, the Democrats perceive this decision as a relief on the US economy. While a war is always costly both financially and in terms of humanties casualties, sustaining it in a period of economic recession risks the stability of the whole country.

Yet, as the US prepares to pull out its troops, both American and Iraqi analysts are expressing fear of a new surge of Al Qaeda offshoot in the country. With the death of Osama bin Laden, the organization is seeking to assert more power and strengthen its position with its allies. Senior Iraqi analysts are concerned that ties between Al Qaeda and members of the former ruling Baath party may start to reform once the American troops withdraw.

Still it is worth noting that in any circumstances the withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq effectively puts and end to an eight-year war that cost the lives of more than 100 000 civilians and 4000 troops.

Journalist and Protest Leader Murdered in Baghdad Home

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has called for a full investigation into the murder of Hadi al-Mahdi on September 9, 2011. The popular radio journalist was shot dead in his home in Baghdad; witnesses at the crime scene informed HRW that they saw no evidence of a struggle and no valuables were taken from the house, implying that the killing was deliberate rather than a result of burglary. Al-Mahdi, who was a prominent freelance journalist and theatre director, had been openly critical of government corruption and social inequality in Iraq. In the run-up to Iraq’s “Day of Rage” on February 25, al-Mahdi became increasingly involved as a vocal organizer of Iraq’s new protest movement; he stressed the importance of peaceful demonstrating, and he took part in a human chain to keep the riot police and violent protestors apart. After the protests, al-Mahdi and three other journalists were arrested in a Baghdad restaurant; he was blindfolded, beaten and threatened with torture in the subsequent interrogation. Al-Mahdi alleged that he was forced, whilst blindfolded, to sign a criminal confession and a pledge to stop his participation in future demonstrations. Despite this ordeal, he continued to organise peaceful demonstrations in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square. The journalist was not unaccustomed to intimidation. According to HRW, he frequently received death threats in the form of text messages, phone calls, and messages on Facebook.
Al-Mahdi’s murder is part of years of targeted violence against journalists in Iraq. Most recently, an unknown assailant beat Asos Hardi, a prominent journalist, with a pistol in Sulaimaniya; Hardi was hospitalized and left needing 32 stitches. Ammar al-Shahbander, the head of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting in Iraq, said “so many journalists have been kidnapped and killed in Iraq but it doesn’t matter how many are tortured, intimidated, or killed – journalists will continue doing their jobs. This attack just shows how desperate the enemies of democracy have become.”

Iraq Violence

A senior finance ministry official has been assassinated by gunmen in Baghdad, whilst a senior judge was left wounded in an attack yesterday. Hospital officials reported that Mohamad Ali al-Safi, a senior official in the finance ministry, died in hospital on Monday evening after gunmen opened fire on his car in western Baghdad. In addition, gunmen shot judge Munir Hadad in the hand in a drive-by shooting in central Baghdad; Hadad, who served as the spokesman for the Iraqi High Tribunal formed to prosecute Saddam Hussein and his aides, survived the assassination attempt. It was also reported that a detonated bomb hit a car carrying four people in the city of Kirkuk; three people were killed, whilst the forth was wounded in the attack.
Attacks on Iraqi officials have been stepped up in recent months as US troops prepare to withdraw from Iraq.

Large- Scale Demonstrations In Iraq

Massive demonstrations have reportedly taken place in Tahrir Square, Baghdad, following a thirty- day suspension of protests in Iraq. The protests, led by students, intellectuals and independent politicians, echo the well- publicised demonstrations that dominated the capital every Friday after February 25th of this year.

Protesters organised a series of rallies, which took place on September 9th. They called for an end to institutionalised corruption, as well as the establishment of the long- awaited FAO port, which officials have promised has the potential to bring a significant economic boost to the entire region. Many protesters also called for a public apology from the government, whilst others demanded their resignation, claiming that Iraq’s lack of services, unemployment, and its record of unlawful detention were evidence that they had ‘failed in their duties’. One of the rallies also objected to the visit of Iraqi Speaker Ousama Al Nujayfi and Vice President Al Hashimi to Saudi Arabia.

In anticipation of Friday’s events, security forces closed all entrances to the ‘Green Zone’ (a military term which denotes a 10km squared area of central Baghdad, considered ‘secure’). It has since been reported that the Iraqi Army responded directly to the demonstrations with batons. President Al- Maliki has since said that his government is working to accelerate the building of the FAO port, but little international coverage in the aftermath of the demonstrations only fuels speculation that the government are indeed still operating behind closed doors. Whilst many of the protesters sought a public apology for the suppression of activists in previous months, in the absence of any impartial reporting, we can only presume that administrative reforms are yet to take place.

Turkish War Planes Bomb Kurdish Militants in Iraq

On Sunday 4th September, Turkish war planes launched attacks on the militants from the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) who are based in the Qandil mountains, Northern Iraq. Tensions have intensified between Turkey and Kurdistan in recent weeks; August saw the death of as many as 160 Kurdish militants as a result of Turkish air strikes.

Further to this, Iran has claimed responsibility for the 30 casualties experienced by the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK). The Kurdistan Worker's Party believe that Turkish and Iranian forces are working together to coordinate their attacks, and have claimed that in direct response to this, they will join forces with the PJAK.

July saw the PKK attack over forty Turkish security personnel. Over 40,000 people have now been killed in the conflict between the PKK and Turkey since 1984.

'Real First Step' for Journalism in Iraq??

On August 9th 2011, the Iraqi Parliament approved legislation with the intention of 'strengthening' the rights of its journalists. The Protection Laws enable Judicial Decision alone to sanction the confiscation of newspapers, the investigation of journalists for activity deemed criminal, and also provides financial assurance for journalists injured on the job. This legislation comes at a time when Iraq has, for the fourth year running, been branded as the country with the worst record of justice for murdered reporters, according to a New York- based Press watchdog. Iraq has more than three times the number of media- related unsolved murders than Somalia, which has the next most concerning record, and yet still shows no signs of improvement.

In spite of this, Al- Lami, of the Iraqi Journalists' Syndicate, has responded to August's Journalism Protection Laws as a 'real first step'. Indeed, with the syndicate being 15,000 strong, the Iraqi government surely would have hoped that last month's legislation would go some way to quelling the weekly non- violent protests that have characterised Fridays at Tahrir Square, since February. However, many have voiced concern over the wording of the legislation, and journalists such as Hiwa Osman assert that the Protection Laws have been passed under the guise of 'killing the industry'. Primary concerns have been expressed over the vague language employed, along with the narrow definition of journalists ('full- time, registered media workers'), and the way in which the laws ensure that many journalists are restricted to covering government- friendly issues. In this sense, the Journalist Protection legislation actually seeks to foster a much larger dependence on the Iraqi Journalist Syndicate; paving the way for much greater central control and exacerbating the threat to the free media in Iraq. Osman predicts that the implementation of the law will hasten the demise of professional journalism in Iraq; the restrictions in accessing and broadcasting information that journalists will be subject to are a severe blow to democracy. The law essentially opens the door for state- sponsored persecution of journalists who do not comply with the government.


It seems inherently clear that the law is an attempt to reign in Iraqi journalists and, at the same time, act as a deterrent to international journalists. Not only have foreign reporters long been the targets of assassinations, random violence and roadside bombs in Iraq, but they now have to be more aware than ever of the wrath of Iraqi 'judicial decision'.

http://www.rudaw.net/english/science/columnists/3951.html

Post 2011 withdrawel from Iraq. What next?

The deadline for the 46,000 US troop withdrawel from Iraq is December 2011. This withdrawel is based on an agreement signed between Washington and Baghdad in 2008.

Until recently it has been unknown whether Baghdad would agree to allow US troops to stay on in Iraq, post 2011. Iraqi governmental authorisation would be needed for this to be effective.

Allegedly US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta has said that Iraq had agreed to keep American troops post 2011. He said "We are going to maintain long-term relationship with Iraq to make sure they remain stable, whether it's diplomatic or military".

Iranian weapons are killing US troops

According to a recent report (July 2011), more US troops are being killed by Iranian weapons (though not Iranians!) than ever before.

Military commanders stationed in Iraq have stated than Iranian made weaponry is now the greatest threat to their soldiers.

This highlights Tehran’s push to gain influence in the post-American Middle East region.

14 men were killed in June, a record high, and 12 of these were killed by Iraqi militias who had Iranian backing, so US forces claim.

However, US forces have never discovered any weapons in transit and are unsure about how they might stop these deliveries crossing the border. The Iranian government denies any involvement and has issued a statement that they have never supplied weaponry to any Shia militias operating in Iraq.

Correspondingly, US influence in Iraq is declining. The Obama administration made it clear that should Iraq so choose, they would be willing to leave a small number of troops in the country after their designated withdrawal date.

At present, it does not appear likely that Baghdad would take them up on such an offer.

http://nationaljournal.com/record-number-of-u-s-troops-killed-by-iranian-weapons-20110728?mrefid=site_search

How long can Maliki hold on?

Since 2005 Iraq has been defined by its constitution, as a federal state. But will the lack of powers that al-Maliki has granted to local authorities be his downfall?

Opposition members have accused Maliki of abusing his authority and fear that he is consolidating power that according to the constitution of Iraq, should have been devolved to local bodies.

It is the view of some Iraqis that al-Maliki must allow the country to become more federal and devolve even more responsibilities to the provinces. Once Maliki has created a truly federal Iraq, his time to step down as Prime Minister will have arrived.

If Maliki continues to hoard power in this manner he will cause the fragmentation of Iraq.

His consultants advise his that increased federalism with greater funding to the provincial governments is the only solution for the country. Until now, no region has gathered enough signatures to call for a referendum on autonomy but this will not always be the case. If the regional authorities do garner enough support and achieve autonomy, the Iraq of today will cease to exist.

At present, despite the official federal nature of Iraq, too many decisions are made by the Maliki government; this needs to change. If Maliki continues to refuse the demands of the local governments, for greater autonomy, they will put more and more pressure on him and Iraq could fragment.

What Maliki will do about federal Iraq remains to be seen.At present his focus is on the withdrawal of the US troops, scheduled for the end of the year; which is, according to Mayada Al Askari, Maliki’s greatest test yet.

Al-Maliki’s government continue to postpone their discussions over whether they wish America to leave as scheduled or remain in the country a little longer. Many Iraqi’s and Iraqi groups strongly oppose any future for the US in Iraq and the American people would also need convincing.

The Iraqis must sit down together and decide what to do about the future of American troops in Iraq... but will this leave time for discussion on the future of federalism or will it all be too late for Maliki and indeed for Iraq?

Basra: the next semi autonomous region in Iraq?

The 2005 Iraq constitution defines Iraq as a federal country. Basra submitted a petition to the electoral commission to hold a referendum, the result of which would be it becoming a semi-autonomous region.

It wants autonomy because many of its residents consider themselves marginalised by successive Iraqi governments both before and since the 2003 American liberation.

The guidelines under which the constitution allows for a region to declare autonomy is, “a new region can be proposed by one third or more of the council members in each affected governorate plus 500 voters or by one tenth or more voters in each affected governorate. A referendum must then be held within three months, which requires a simple majority in favour to pass".

However Prime Minister Malaki opposed this referendum, believing that forming new regions in Iraq would trigger a civil war. Basra in particular is riddled with rivalries between the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council(SIIC), the Fadhila party and the Sadrists. Another reason for Malaki's oppostion is that he favours a strong central state.

Denial of bombing of Kuwait embassy in Iraq

News reports stated that the Kuwait embassy in Baghdad was the target of three rockets. However the acting undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kuwair, Mohammed Ahmed Al-Roumi denied these reports even though the ministry has withdrawn all its diplomats and embassy staff from Baghdad. Al-Roumi claimed that staff has been recalled to Iraq because of Ramadan approaching.

Whilst there is no explanation as to why this attack has been denied by the Kuwaitis, the motive for the attack is apparent. Tensions have been growing between Iraq and Kuwait over the latter’s plan to build a nuclear facility near the Iraqi border. Interestingly this plan was later retracted by the Kuwaitis (in mid- July). Rather, they said that a port would be built at Mubarak Al Kabir, located across from the Iraqi port of Basra.

Iraq government slim down

Malaki's going to cut the size of his government. Surely that will cause a ruccus amongst the bit players in his coalition?

Khaleej Times - 01 July, 2011

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki wants to cut the number of ministries and ministerial positions by nearly half in an effort to improve government efficiency, a close aide said on Thursday.

Iraq MPsstart to fight

Now Malaki's Dawa and Alawi's Iraqiya have started to thump one another in parliament. Brilliant:

Khaleej Times - 13 June, 2011
Two rival Iraqi lawmakers came to blows on Sunday at a time of rising tension between Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s Shiite bloc and a Sunni-backed alliance, a parliamentary source told AFP.
The increasingly frayed ties between the two camps, which finished neck-and-neck in a March 2010 election and are now part of a national unity government, have sparked concern over major issues left unresolved.
The fight started after Kamal Saadi from Maliki’s State of Law alliance beat the Sunni-backed Iraqiya party’s Haidar al-Mulla with his walking stick inside the parliamentary cafe, the source said.

Outstaying their welcome?

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has expressed his hope that Baghdad will ask US troops to stay beyond their scheduled departure. This conflicts with President Obama’s previous pledge that the US will continue to support Iraq whilst bringing all US troops home. There are currently about 47,000 Americans in uniform in Iraq, all of whom are scheduled to leave by December 31 under an agreement worked out in 2008, shortly before Obama became President.

Gates said that a prolonged US military presence could help sustain security capabilities and other gains Iraq has made in recent years, and would send a signal of reassurance to other Arab countries facing civil unrest. Iraq could become a model for a multi-sectarian society in the Arab world “that shows that democracy works”. His comments observed that, whilst Iraqi political and military leaders acknowledge that they need further US military support, popular sentiment is strongly against an extended US presence and complicates seeking continued military help.

But surely, as a country which has had democracy essentially imposed on it from the outside, wouldn’t Iraq would make a weak example of functioning democracy? Wouldn’t Tunisia or Egypt – both countries in which democracy rose from within – set a better example? Additionally, the indication that popular sentiment might be less important than the opinions of those in power goes against the whole principle of democracy. The unpopularity of US presence should simplify and strengthen the military’s commitment to leave by the scheduled date. Gates has conceded that “we’ll just have to wait and see because the initiative ultimately has to come from the Iraqis” – but just who he is talking about when he refers to “the Iraqis” is unclear. If Gates is willing to listen to the requests of officials over the overwhelming consensus of the civilian population, the US’ fight for so-called “democracy” in the Arab world may prove to be fruitless.

2011 Global Peace Index

For the first time in five years, Iraq does not rank at the bottom of the Global Peace Index (published by the Institute for Economics and Peace).

The index is made up of 23 indicators, ranging from a nation's level of military expenditure to its relations with neighbouring countries and its level of respect for human rights.

Interesting, Libya saw the most significant drop, with Bahrain the next big offender. These drastic drops have been triggered by the Arab Spring- and the clash between governments and its citizens.

Chance would be a Fine Thing

Associated Press - 03 April, 2011

Iraq’s prime minister said Saturday he was confident his government will survive a 100-day test he imposed on Cabinet ministers to enact reforms and root out corruption or risk losing their jobs.

But Premier Nuri Al-Maliki opened several escape clauses for his ministers should they fail to meet the June 7 deadline, which he set in an effort to appease protests by crowds demanding better public services and an end to corruption.

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Extraordinary News from Baghdad

Dear Friends, sorry for sending this news
Today, and with a great astonishment, we have received military orders from the Prime Minister office, through the military operations command in Baghdad; to shut the Iraqi nation parties headquarter in Baghdad, within 24 hours.
The Iraqi nation party, the Liberal democratic party, we dare the Iraqi government to direct any accusation against us.
We are not a corrupted party. We do not work by commands from Iran and others. Our votes are clean and based on elections. We do not steal from the Iraqi public. We do not use the country affairs for our own advantages. We support the values of democracy. We keep supporting peoples’ right to demonstrate.
Closing down our office will not stop our support to the protests and the protestors, and the protestors’ requests.
all the best,
Mithal alalusi

Iraq electricity subsidies introduced after protests

It was disgraceful that the coalition forces could never manage to restore Iraq's power after the invasion. Saddam managed it despite sanctions. It is equally disgraceful that now Iraq has independance she fares little better.

Arab News - 14 February, 2011
Iraqis will receive their first 1,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity for free each month, the Ministry of Electricity said, following growing protests over poor electricity supply and basic services.

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Christians are being targetted in Iraq

On Weds 3rd Nov 2010 Rebecca Santana wrote that after gunmen had held a Christian congrenation hostage in a seige in which 58 people died, the attacks seemed to concetrate on the Shiite population, the most deadly blast happened near a market in Sadr City.

Pope Benedict said of Iraq "Violence hasn't stopped in this country Christians are bcoming the target of these cruel events"

On the wider stage, Sir David Richards is roported as saying that Victory over al-Qa'ida is not possile, as the conception is just it's an idea! There are so many parallels. This takes me back to the lady who has this deam of her ladies football team in Kabul and the horror of the Taliban gaining power!

There seems to be "a religious excuse for barbarity", either you say "God told you so".
Perhaps it is time for us all to rethink our approach to religion. Personally I am even bothered about how we kill our meat in the UK We had a farm once in the Swansea Valley. If any one has been to an Abbatoir the animals know what is coming. If you are Muslim you call it "Halal" if Jewish "Kosher" but to say the animal doesn't suffer doesn't know much about animals!!

We are all mixed up about religion and have lost touch with the original inspiration from God to love one another. That is the reason that Christians, Jews and Muslims are tormenting women, gays and all those who are from what some people think who canot put up a good fight with the others being physically stronger. These make an Excuse for "The Men of God" beware as Edmund Burke said "That no man made a greater mistake, that he who did nothing, as he could only do a little."

There is a lot to do in Iraq and in nieghbouring Afghanistan to bring peace to this region and there are many people working to do so let us hope it is going to be in time before too many lives are lost from so many nations.

Iraq raid on Church an attempt to undermine government formation

The raid by a group of fanatics on the Baghdad Catholic church was conducted by non-Iraqis thought to be of Saudi extraction according to NCF sources in Iraq. Our sources feel that this is part of a push to de-rail moves at government formation by using violence to undermine Malaki's authority.

Current status of negotiations are centred on a deal whereby Allawi would get one of his people as speaker of the parliament plus the position of chair of the special "National Strategic Committtee" that the USA is lobbying hard to promote. This with a Malaki Premiership.

Interesting. For an alternative view condemning the raids from a different angle see this from Potkin.

Ribal Al-Assad Condemns Iranian regime's interference in Iraq and the despicable hostage taking of Christians in Iraq by criminals pretending to be Muslims

Iraq's Elections: Iran steps in

Iran has been accused of interfering to impose its will on Iraq after it appears it was instrumental in a deal between Maliki and Muqtada al-Sadr which could hand Maliki a second term.

Maliki, who is currently in Iran visiting the President, would now have enough seats to form a government as long as the Kurds and the rest of the INA were willing to form a coalition with him. This development has angered Allawi, of the secular Iraqiya block, and also the US who see it as a sign that their influence in the region is dwindling. The Sadrists, named after the radical shia cleric, have opposed the American occupation of Iraq and up until now the Maliki government as he cracked down on their insurgency.

Allawi has claimed that Iraq will lose independence following this deal as Iran will try to improve its influence. America says it will distance itself from a government that includes the radical Sadrists. This development comes after Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon amidst what is seen as Iran's attempt to improve its standing in the region and become a dominant power. If it is true and a future Maliki led administration owed it's existence to Iran then the stability that the country craves may not be forthcoming.

New Oil Capacity Discovered as Iraq overtakes Iran

The Iraqi government has announced that its oil reserves are nearly a quarter larger than they were last time a review was published.

The findings represent the first report on the state of Iraq's oil since Saddam Hussein was toppled after the invasion in 2003 and will present a boost to the incoming government. It is estimated that 80% of Iraq's economy depends on the oil industry so finding new oil will improve the prospects for the future. The announcement comes shortly after Iraq's oil production per day jumped by more than 10% on the previous month to over 2 million barrels per day.

The announcement by the current Iraqi oil minister, Hussein al-Shahristani, that Iraq has a potential 143.1bn barrels compared to the 115bn barrels of previous estimates means that Iraq now has more potential to supply oil than Iran and has the fourth biggest stock in the world. However Iraq still produces far fewer barrels per day (bpd) than Iran as its infrastructure was badly hit by first the war and then the insurgency.

Looking forward Iraq has signed deals with oil extraction companies that could lead to production of upwards of 10 m bpd in 5-7 years putting it in a position to rival Saudi Arabia. This is likely to lead to even greater revenues for the Iraqi Government and more jobs created in this sector. This is dependant on the stability of the country with fears that if the insurgency did start up again then the potential revenue would be wasted.

Sources: BBC, Steel Guru, Voice of Russia

Maliki: Prime Minister in All But Name

NCF sources are now indicating that Nouri Al Maliki has been accepted as the Prime Minister-to-be by all of the four main blocks in the Iraqi government. It is now apparent that rather than rushing to announce the name of the Prime Minister the four main parties; the State of Law coalition, the INA, the Al-Iraqiya list and the Kurdish block, have tacitly accepted that Maliki will be Prime Minister.

The next move and the reason that the announcement has been delayed so long is that there is now much manoeuvring between the other parties to try and gain the most influence in a Maliki government. It appears that there are three possible options for government:

• A coalition between the INA and Maliki with support from the Kurds
• A coalition between Allawi (head of the Al-Iraqiya list) and Malaki with support from the Kurds
• A Government of National Unity where all four parties play a role.

Until two or more of these parties come to an agreement it is unlikely that Maliki or any of other the Ministries will be announced. For now though the interim government, despite the concern voiced by America, is functioning well on an ad hoc basis.

Prime Minister in a Fortnight

NCF sources indicate that we will have the endorsement of Malaki as premier within the fortnight but that decisions on Ministerial posts will take some months yet. Some interesting comments from Allawi (pictured):

Allawi sees progress on govt by end of October

Gulf Times - 07 September, 2010
Former Iraqi premier Iyad Allawi hopes coalition talks will have progressed by end-October and said forming a government was key to security in Iraq after the US formally ended combat operations.

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Maliki says there are more Foreign planned attacks coming

All the sick bombing attacks in Iraq are plotted and / or supported from the neighboring states. Indeed almost all suicide bombers are foreigners. But there are still remnants of the old Baathist / Islamist alliance that developed in the imediate aftermath of the fall of Saddam and is centred on a command in and around Mosul.

Iraq's premier Malaki has been expressing concern about the latest plots. For a fuller article on the issue click here:
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What is next for Iraq? Bloc politics

163. This is the number of seats needed by a political party to form a government. After the elections on 7 March 2010 the secular Sunni Iraqiyya alliance (headed by former premier Iyad Allawi) won 91 seats. The mainly Shia coalition (led by the outgoing Prime Minister, Nouri Maliki) won 89 and the Kurds won 57 seats. No party won an outright majority and the country is locked in political stalemate.

With regards to coalition building, William Morris predicts that the future government in Iraq will be a coalition between Allawi and Malaki with support from the Kurds (Jalal Talabani remains the President). Both Allawi and Malaki want a more centralized Iraqi state and they have a common Arab nationalist outlook. They also have the American seal of approval. The opposition party will be made up of a coalition between Hakim and Sadr who together form the Iraq National Alliance (INA) (which is a coalition of Shia parties).

The lack of political progress is creating uncertainty In Iraq and there are fears that this may reignite the sectarian violence that was so pervasive back in 2006. However democracy is thriving in Iraq, and Iraqis know how to assert their democratic rights.

Maliki will cling onto Power

Maliki and the Kurds are forging an allince which leaves the INA in opposition and leaves Allawi the option of becoming foreign minister and joining the game. Which will be interesting.

Iraqi leaders agree to roadmap for gov't row

Kuwait News Agency - 09 August, 2010Iraq Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani and Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki have agreed to a roadmap for a way out of the row over a new Iraqi government. Speaking at a joint news conference with Al-Maliki, Barzani said they would begin soon consultations with Iraqi political blocs about such a roadmap.